The Washington Nationals (55-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (70-50) begin a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines for the Nationals vs. Phillies game, along with expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
**Season Series:** Phillies lead 5-1
The Nationals recently split a two-game series with the Baltimore Orioles, concluding with a 4-1 loss as +154 underdogs on Wednesday, with the Under (9) hitting. Currently 4th in the NL East, the Nationals are 15½ games behind the division-leading Phillies and have a less than 0.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.
The Phillies also split their midweek series. After a 5-0 loss as -200 favorites in the Tuesday opener, Philadelphia bounced back with a 9-5 win as a -157 favorite on Wednesday, with the Over (8.5) hitting. The Phillies hold a 6-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and are -800 favorites at BetMGM Sportsbook to win the division.
**Projected Starters:**
- **Nationals:** LHP Mitchell Parker (6-6, 3.83 ERA) - Parker is making his 22nd start of the season, boasting a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and 7.3 K/9 in 112 2/3 innings. In his last start, he earned a no-decision with 6 1/3 innings of shutout baseball against the Los Angeles Angels. On the road this season, he is 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA. He has not faced the Phillies before.
- **Phillies:** RHP Zack Wheeler (11-5, 2.78 ERA) - Wheeler is making his 24th start, with a 1.00 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, and 9.8 K/9 in 142 2/3 innings. His last outing was a no-decision where he allowed 2 earned runs over 6 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. At home in 2024, he is 7-3 with a 2.48 ERA. Wheeler has faced the Nationals once this season, earning a win with 7 1/3 innings of 2-earned run ball. Over his career, he is 13-15 with a 4.59 ERA in 33 starts against Washington.
**Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook (last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET):**
- **Moneyline (ML):** Nationals +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Phillies -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- **Run Line (RL):** Nationals +1.5 (+110) | Phillies -1.5 (-135)
- **Over/Under (O/U):** 8 (Over: -115 | Under: -105)
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**Nationals vs. Phillies Picks and Predictions**
**Prediction:** Phillies 5, Nationals 2
**Moneyline:**
The Phillies (-300) have been strong at home, with a 7-2 record in Zack Wheeler’s last 9 home starts. However, the high vig on this line makes it challenging to find value.
**Recommendation:** PASS on the moneyline and consider betting the run line or total instead.
**Run Line/Against the Spread:**
Philadelphia has won by multiple runs in 7 of Wheeler’s last 9 home starts. The Nationals are 8-13 straight up in their last 21 games, with their last 6 losses coming by 2 or more runs.
Mitchell Parker has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 6 of his last 9 road starts. With Wheeler being a top contender for the NL Cy Young Award and the clear pitching edge, the Phillies should comfortably cover the run line.
**Recommendation:** BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-135).
**Over/Under:**
The Under has hit 30-23-3 (56.6%) this season when the Phillies are home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. Wheeler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 9 home starts and is expected to rebound from a poor outing against the Yankees on July 29.
While the Phillies’ offense can score, they have tallied 5 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games.
**Recommendation:** BET UNDER 8 (-105).
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